Twelve Predictions for Churches in 2025
When it comes to the start of a new year, there tend to be two kinds of predictions. The first are “shots in the dark”—wild, almost baseless predictions that seem more designed to gain attention than to be grounded in any kind of fact. The second are more reasoned. They tend to be based on things already happening that seem to be headed toward even greater prominence.
It's the second of those types of predictions that can be of use, and I offer a dozen here that I hope will serve churches and their leaders for the coming year.
1. Ideology will replace theology as the gravitational center for an increasing number of churches. Rather than churches being built around core theological principles such as the inspiration and authority of the Bible or the atoning work of Jesus, they will become tribal in nature on the basis of political or cultural issues. For example, it will become more important that a church’s leadership supported a certain political party, or embraced a political stance, than whether it embraced an aspect of historic Christian orthodoxy.
2. Said ideological churches will not do well in the long term. Because they were attractional on the basis of cultural divides, coupled with a spirit that valued and embraced such division, they will continue to divide among themselves as new and various issues present themselves. When acrimony leads to assemblage, it is not long before that assemblage turns its energies on another enemy as the spirit of division knows no end. As Frederick Buechner once noted, “To lick your wounds, to smack your lips over grievances long past, to roll over your tongue the prospect of bitter confrontations still to come, to savor to the last toothsome morsel both the pain you are given and the pain you are giving back—in many ways, it is a feast fit for a king.” Yet Buechner was wise in carrying the meal through to its final course. “The chief drawback,” he continues, “is that what you are wolfing down is yourself. The skeleton at the feast is you.”
3. Adding to church woes will be the expansion of theological “essentials” for tribal identity and inclusion. This is akin to churches that have little more than an ideological identity. Churches that have an ever-narrowing theological identity add so many things to the “essentials” category that it borders on cultic. It’s not enough to embrace, say, the Nicene Creed or the more recent Lausanne Covenant. Now, there is a move toward specific views of women in ministry, or the embrace of Calvinism, as new tests of orthodoxy. The dictum “in essentials, unity; in non-essentials, liberty; in all things, charity” has become “in our essentials, unity,” with an ever-diminishing category for anything in the liberty category and charity almost forgotten.
4. Culture will increasingly make carving out time for anything religious or to create the space for spiritual investment, increasingly problematic if not discounted. This will be particularly pronounced regarding parental decision-making. There is such a growing obsession with doing whatever it takes to advance a child in the world, with sports leading the way with its increasing demands for Sunday mornings, that parents will have to choose. And choose they will—and for many, it will be for sports.
5. A “hybrid” approach to ministry (embracing both the physical and the digital, the in-person and the online) will increasingly become as common and normal for churches as contemporary approaches to music or graphic design. Largely this will be out of missional necessity. We live in a digital world and will find ourselves having to cross the digital divide to reach those who are far from God.
6. As a result of a hybrid world, churches will find themselves more concerned with “connecting” than “gathering.” We have made gathering in person the locus of church life when in reality connecting a community will be just as critical, if not more so. (For more on all things hybrid, see my book Hybrid Church, published through Zondervan.)
7. The multi-site approach, while still proving useful, will lessen in importance for growing churches that have the ability to expand in other ways. The reason is that the multi-site approach was designed to address geographical barriers tied to numerical growth. However, the barriers that exist today are not primarily geographic, but rather digital, and growth in a hybrid model has far fewer physical limitations.
8. The great “dechurching” will continue. While the “rise of the nones” has leveled off a bit, it is still the dominant religious grouping in the United States and shows no signs of diminishing. While belief in God will remain high compared to other countries, American theism will become increasingly untethered to not only a community of faith but also to a defined set of beliefs. In essence, people will leave religion and become less religious at the same time.
9. There will be no greater doctrine of the Christian faith more under attack, and therefore more in need of critical reflection, than the doctrine of humanity. Everything from trans to AI begs its understanding... and an apologetic for its orthodoxy.
10. Churches oriented toward the “already convinced” (translation: transfer growth) will continue to grow if they cater to the consumerist needs of the typical believer. This will mean said churches really do (and will) compete against each other, and larger churches that do it better will get larger, and smaller churches that do it worse will get even smaller. The only exceptions will be those churches that truly go after the unchurched. In marketing terms, you could consider it the great, untapped market that would allow any church to grow exponentially in a way that is outside of the ecosystem of existing churches.
11. Globally, the Christian West-South divide will become more pronounced as the West becomes more liberal and lifeless, and the South more conservative and charismatic. It used to be joked that it won’t be long before churches in Africa are sending missionaries to the United States. It’s no longer a joke.
12. Decivilization will continue at a frightening pace. Having a normal, functioning society with a clear sense of what is horrific and appalling is fading fast and we will continue to see our society slide into the abyss.
I could write more, but I find I am losing heart even as I complete this short list. Suffice it to say, I take no pleasure in making these predictions. No one hopes I am wrong in my prognostications more than me.
But sadly, they are my predictions.
James Emery White
Photo Courtesy: ©Getty Images/Christin Lola
Published Date: January 6, 2025
James Emery White is the founding and senior pastor of Mecklenburg Community Church in Charlotte, NC, and a former professor of theology and culture at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary, where he also served as their fourth president. His latest book, Hybrid Church: Rethinking the Church for a Post-Christian Digital Age, is now available on Amazon or from your favorite bookseller. To enjoy a free subscription to the Church & Culture blog, visit churchandculture.org where you can view past blogs in our archive, read the latest church and culture news from around the world, and listen to the Church & Culture Podcast. Follow Dr. White on X, Facebook, and Instagram at @JamesEmeryWhite.
Originally published January 06, 2025.
