Predicting who is going to win the Oscars is always a favorite pastime for film fans, yet while most simply focus on the major categories there are some truly geeky cinephiles out there that like to take a shot at all twenty-four. I'm one of those geeks. I follow each Oscar season very closely, seeing most nominees, and following trade reports about how each race and every contender is sizing up.
So here they are: my predictions across the entire ballot for the 2012 Academy Awards. Hopefully this can help serve as a crib sheet for your own Oscar predictions, particularly in the more obscure categories.
In each category I list all of the nominees, then who I think WILL WIN (not necessarily who I want to, but who I'm predicting), and end with UPSET POTENTIAL and designations of "Strong", "Possible", "Weak", and "None" (with reasoning for each, and the nominees that may play spoiler).
BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
WILL WIN: The Artist
oscar.go.com/nominees/best-picture/the-artist
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak, but if there is one it’ll be Scorsese’s Hugo which leads all films with 11 nominations. (The Artist is second in nominations with 10.)
BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
WILL WIN: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
oscar.go.com/nominees/directing/the-artist
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak. Scorsese’s the only competition, and that's faint.
BEST ACTOR
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
WILL WIN: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
oscar.go.com/nominees/actor-in-a-leading-role/jean-dujardin
UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. Clooney could easily take this, but Dujardin’s recent Screen Actors Guild win gives him the advantage.
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
WILL WIN: Viola Davis, The Help
oscar.go.com/nominees/actress-in-a-leading-role/viola-davis
UPSET POTENTIAL: Possible, but unlikely. Streep would be a surprise, but not a shocker.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
WILL WIN: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
oscar.go.com/nominees/actor-in-a-supporting-role/christopher-plummer
UPSET POTENTIAL: None. This is Von Trapp's . . . er, Plummer’s.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
WILL WIN: Octavia Spencer, The Help
oscar.go.com/nominees/actress-in-a-supporting-role/octavia-spencer
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak, but Bejo could benefit from love for The Artist.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
WILL WIN: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
oscar.go.com/nominees/writing-original-screenplay/midnight-in-paris
UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. The Artist is a real contender here, but voters will likely go with the revered Allen. They love him, plus they’ll give Hazanavicius his Oscar in the Director category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, Moneyball
Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughn, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
WILL WIN: John Logan, Hugo
oscar.go.com/nominees/writing-adapted-screenplay/hugo
UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. The Academy loves Alexander Payne; his screenplays are always nominated, and he’s also won. But this is an easy category to give Hugo some love.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
WILL WIN: Rango
oscar.go.com/nominees/animated-feature-film/rango
UPSET POTENTIAL: None. This may be the surest thing of the night.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
WILL WIN: A Separation (Iran)
oscar.go.com/nominees/foreign-language-film/iran-a-separation
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak. In Darkness is a possible, but there’s universal acclaim for the Iranian domestic drama A Separation.
ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin, John Williams
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
Hugo, Howard Shore
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Alberto Iglesias
War Horse, John Williams
WILL WIN: The Artist, Ludovic Bource
oscar.go.com/nominees/music-original-score/the-artist
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak. It’s hard seeing this go any other way.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Man or Muppet," The Muppets; Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio," Rio; Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown, Lyric by Siedah Garrett
WILL WIN: "Man or Muppet," The Muppets; Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
oscar.go.com/nominees/music-original-song/the-muppets
UPSET POTENTIAL: None. And correction—THIS is the surest thing of the night.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
WILL WIN: Hugo
oscar.go.com/nominees/art-direction/hugo
UPSET POTENTIAL: Possible. A very competitive field, but Hugo is visually stunning. Still, The Artist could pull this out.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
WILL WIN: The Artist
oscar.go.com/nominees/cinematography/the-artist
UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. The Tree of Life should really win this and will no doubt get a lot of votes. But love for The Artist will put it over the top here, likely in a squeaker (though we’ll never truly know).
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
WILL WIN: The Artist
oscar.go.com/nominees/costume-design/the-artist
UPSET POTENTIAL: Possible. Costume dramas like Anonymous, Jane Eyre and Hugo almost exclusively win this category, but again—too much love for The Artist this year, and those other three will likely split votes. But if one pulls it out, it’ll be Hugo.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
WILL WIN: Pina
oscar.go.com/nominees/documentary-feature/pina
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak. Critics have been in awe of Pina’s 3D visualization of the Art of Dance, but if there is an upset it’ll be Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
WILL WIN: The Artist
oscar.go.com/nominees/film-editing/the-artist
UPSET POTENTIAL: Possible. The Editors Guild gave their Comedy/Musical award to The Artist and dramatic award to The Descendants. The Artist gets the edge in this showdown.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
WILL WIN: The Iron Lady
oscar.go.com/nominees/makeup/the-iron-lady
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak. That Albert Nobbs makeup wasn’t fooling anybody, and despite the excellence of HP8 the visual transformation of Streep to Thatcher really was eerie, almost clone-like.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
WILL WIN: Saving Face
oscar.go.com/nominees/documentary-short-subject/saving-face
UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom is an artful elegy of the Japan tsunami disaster, but Saving Face—about helping Pakistani women who’ve been disfigured by men having thrown acid on their faces—is the more intimate and has the emotional pull of injustice and unnecessary man-made tragedy.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
WILL WIN: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
oscar.go.com/nominees/short-film-animated/the-fantastic-flying-books-of-mr-morris-lessmore
UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. Three very good films here. Pixar’s creative and charming La Luna could actually benefit from the studio not having an Animated Feature nominee (they haven’t won Short since the Feature category was created), and Wild Life is an evocative different kind of “Western” from Canada, but The Fantastic Flying . . . is pure magic (and from an ex-Pixar artist); it really should be developed into a feature.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
WILL WIN: Tuba Atlantic
oscar.go.com/nominees/short-film-live-action/tuba-atlantic
UPSET POTENTIAL: Strong. The Shore is by Terry George, who’s written many respected features (Hotel Rwanda, In the Name of the Father), and the story is conventional in an easy-to-like kind of way, plus he’s actually campaigned for this on the Oscar circuit. Raju is a moving story about child kidnapping (and well made), but Tuba Atlantic plays at the same heartstrings of late-in-life regrets as The Shore does, but with a more creative conceit at its core.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
WILL WIN: Hugo
oscar.go.com/nominees/sound-editing/hugo
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak. These awards go to either respected summer blockbusters or the big budget prestige pic with a lot of nominations. It’s the latter this year, and that’s Hugo. War Horse could surprise, though, as it’s a prestige pic with war sequences.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
WILL WIN: Hugo
oscar.go.com/nominees/sound-mixing/hugo
UPSET POTENTIAL: Weak. Ditto above.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
WILL WIN: Hugo
oscar.go.com/nominees/visual-effects/hugo
UPSET POTENTIAL: Possible, as all the contenders are strong. But Hugo is still probably the most respected film of the bunch, and its 3D has been praised as the best ever.
***
If my predictions hold true, the night's big winners will be:
The Artist – 7
Hugo – 5
Jeffrey Huston is Lead Creative at Steelehouse Productions, a film and video production company in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He also regularly reviews films for the Movies channel at Crosswalk.com.